City of Turku population forecast

The population forecast is built to model the development of the population, taking into account the population of previous years, the building stock and the planned housing construction of the future. Data includes population projection for years 2021-2051. The project has taken into account the population of previous years and the actual planned housing stock. The population projection describes a possible future trend in the number of populations. The population forecast projection is a description of the population that the population forecast algorithm will calculate for the coming years. The population forecast algorithm is based on a machine learning algorithm that follows the ‘Päestömetsä’, which utilises the historical data of the population of small areas as well as the actual annual housing stock of these areas. The model has been taught to predict the future population based on previous years’ previous population and actual housing stock. The projection itself was made until 2051. The reason for this is the land use plan of the City of Turku, which has been utilised in the project, which extends until 2050. The forecast has been implemented in two parts. First, the teaching of predicting the number of zero-year-olds has utilised the number of zero-year-olds in the previous year and the previous year. The 20-35-year-old population. The population aged 1-100+ is forecast based on the population and age of the previous year and the housing stock of the previous year. In addition, the housing stock is divided detached houses, blocks of flats and terraced houses based on the annual cumulative area of flats. In the population forecast projection, this housing stock is expected to grow in the City of Turku according to the land use plan. The demographic data of the population used in teaching is data on the population of Turku, provided by Statistics Finland’s Population Data Service, annually according to the annual age of one year. since 2005-2020. Housing stock data has been retrieved from the Turku building register. The population forecast provides a possible scenario of the development of the number of inhabitants per region in Turku. It is based on projecting the trend of growth into the future. However, in the future, there may be unexpected or non-modelling events that change the trend’s growth path. As a result, the accuracy of the forecast decreases the further we go into the future. This is annotated in the data by the uncertainty categories. However, prediction allows you to anticipate events by helping the user prepare for a possible scenario. The data has been made for sharing in such a way that data protection and Statistics Finland’s terms of use are taken into account. This has been implemented in practice by providing forecast data at different regional levels with different age breakdowns. The data is divided into 1) for the whole Turku ages 0-100+, 2) for major regions by age group, and 3) for small areas for the whole population. Data for actual years have been produced by Statistics Finland. For contractual and data protection reasons, the City of Turku’s open data service has limited the scope of the content. About the model in brief: * Model: Random forest (adapted population forest) * The model has been tested for 2015-2020. The average absolute error (Mean Absolute Error) (MAE) has been used in the quality assessment. * MAE: 1st year 1.38, 5th year 2.99 * Explainers: population by 1-year age by small area, cumulative housing stock by type of dwelling (detail house, terraced house, block of flats) * Teaching data: Population by small area by 1-year age 2005-2020 (Statistics centre/population data service) and the city’s cumulative housing stock (City of Turku building register) Additional information: * [regional divisions of the city of Turku](/data/fi/dataset/city divisions) * [PäestöMetsä application](https://www.avoindata.fi/data/fi/showcase/vaestometsa) * [The forest won Statistics Finland’s Data Successors competition](https://www.stat.fi/uutinen/vaestometsa-palvelu-voitti-ensimmaisen-datamenestyjat-kilpailun) * [Small Regional Statistics of the City of Turku](https://www.avoindata.fi/data/fi/dataset/turun-kaupungin-pienaluetilastoja) * [Statistics Centre’s Population Statistics Service](https://www.stat.fi/tup/vaestotilastopalvelu/kirjautuminen.html) (subject to charge) Updates: * 13.1.2022 Material published