Indicators of “potential fragility” of flag areas post 1950

The study of priority pavilion zones aimed to identify the “most fragile” flag areas according to a number of criteria chosen to represent different areas of potential fragility that these neighbourhoods might experience in the future: economic weakening of households, ageing of the population, ageing and inefficiency of housing, value of real estate, difficulties in geographical accessibility to jobs, shops and public or private services, overconsumption of energy, natural risks... All the flag areas have been identified, cut and analysed according to the geographical prism of INSEE (2010)'s 'carroyed data', which provide some statistical data anonymised in neighbourhoods of 200 m per 200 m side, to which we have added other sources of geo-localised data, calculated or evaluated on the same area: real estate, equipment, transport, consumption... A tile has been defined as a “pavilionary” if it includes: more than 50 % of individual housing and a density of more than 250 inhabitants per km² (to differentiate them from scattered habitats linked to agricultural activities). A total of 9 indicators have been calculated, and thresholds of “most unfavourable quarters” — among all the flag areas in the region — have been determined in these different sets of indicators. Only the carroyed areas included in these unfavourable quartiles have been identified as “potentially fragile” on each of the criteria analysed, such as data on “poverty thresholds”, for example. For example, 9 “potential fragility criteria” were constructed, for each flagged “square” of 200 per 200 m, based on the following data and thresholds of unfavourable quartiles (figures on the right): Criterion A = “economically unfavourable” = Low-income household rate | quartile threshold ≥ 20.00 % Criterion B = “Aging” = Rates over 75 years old | quartile threshold ≥ 11.11 % Criterion C = “List from major equipment” = High school ≥ 9.52 km + Supermarket ≥ 5.41 km + Hospital ≥ 11.31 km (Creation of the worst quartiles on these three indicators) Criterion D = “Low real estate value” = price ≤ EUR 1434 per m² Criterion E = “monofunctionality” = Pavilion area of more than 40 hectares contiguous (i.e. 10 tiles) Criterion F = “Risk and nuisance” = Pavilion area built mainly on a PPRT or PPRI area Criterion G = “Strong energy consumption” = combined indicator of energy habitat and estimated displacements according to a mathematical model developed by ELIOTH, with the worst quartile used as a threshold Criterion H = “Low access to transport” = No public transport within a radius of 400 m Criterion I = “Lack of connectivity” = Area outside the very high speed deployment