Winter Passage (weekly)

During the winter period, electricity consumption in France increases compared to the rest of the year. The main cause of increased consumption is heating, to compensate for the drop in temperature. Lighting needs are also increasing at this time, because it is darker. Other uses can increase consumption to a lesser extent. To enable actors to better monitor the sobriety measures put in place, Enedis publishes the following indicators. * Weekly consumption by category of consumers; * Modelling consumption at normal temperature by consumer category; * The weekly average of temperatures achieved; * The weekly average of normal temperatures. There are three categories of consumers. * **residentials**: individuals using a power less than or equal to 36 kVA * **professionals**: more than 4.5 million traders, craftsmen, healthcare professionals, small businesses... using a power of 36 kVA or less * **companies**: structures requiring more than 36 kVA power such as large areas, shopping malls, factories, etc. The weekly consumption achieved corresponds to the aggregation of electricity consumption data per consumer segment over a calendar week on the public distribution network operated by Enedis. The weekly consumption at normal temperature corresponds to what would have been the consumption of the same period excluding climatic hazards, i.e. if the temperatures had been similar to an average of temperatures over 30 years as determined by Météo France. The evolution of consumption at normal temperature makes it possible to follow the actions of sobriety. | Conso realised | Conso T normal | T carried out | T normal —|--|---|---|— Week X | 50 GWh | 100 GWh | 15 °C | 10 °C Week Y | 140 GWh | 90 GWh | 5 °C | 10 °C In this case the sobriety efforts made on week Y helped to gain 10 GWh compared to week X, even though actual consumption increased sharply between week X and week Y. **Modelling Method** In order to measure and visualise the effect of sobriety measurements, we estimate consumption at normal temperature. This makes it possible to free oneself from weather hazards, but not from the climatic effects*. To estimate this consumption at normal temperature, we proceed as follows: * Creation and calibration of a forecasting model. Model input variables are only temperature and calendar configuration * Estimation of consumption at normal temperature, i.e. the consumption predicted by the model when the temperature at input of the model is the normal temperature provided by MétéoFrance * Estimation of the temperature consumption achieved, i.e. the consumption expected by the model when the temperature at the input of the model is the temperature achieved provided by MétéoFrance * Creation of the climate correction which is the difference between the normal temperature estimate and the temperature estimate made * Creation of consumption at normal temperature, which is the sum of consumption realised and climate correction. * climatic effects: change in day length and average temperatures over the course of the year, increase in average temperature over the years