Change in the mean potential erosion hazard due to water in 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000 (projection)

The map shows the change in the mean potential soil removal by water (in t/ha and year) for the 30-year period 2021-2050 based on climate projection data. The soil removal is calculated on the basis of ABAG (‘General soil removal equation’) in accordance with DIN 19708 (2011). Positive values indicate an increase in soil removal in the future, negative a decrease. Soil erosion is the removal of soil material through water and wind. The process of soil erosion caused by water depends on a variety of factors. These include climatic conditions (especially heavy precipitation), relief properties, use and cultivated crops and crop rotations, as well as soil-based location parameters. The basis for climate data is the assumption of the IPPC’s “further-how-as-to-date” scenario RCP8.5 from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This is a scenario that describes a continuous increase in global greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in an additional radiative propulsion of 8.5 watts per m² compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. For scenario RCP8.5, a variety of climate projections are available, resulting from different combinations of global and regional climate models (or regionalisation methods). From a maximum available total ensemble of 37 climate projections, a reduced ensemble with 10 climate projections was created at the LBEG using a selection method of the DWD. The relevant climate model data (temperature and precipitation) were subjected to monthly BIAS adjustment (through linear scaling). For the identification term, the basic soil data is supplemented by relief data as well as data on land use. Shown are the mean value of the 30-year period considered, as well as the minimum and maximum value of the bandwidth.