Creditworthiness under climate change

Current starting credit of the tree species spruce, beech, oak and fir as well as percentage credit change for the 30-year averages for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 of RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 relative to the forest area of Baden-Württemberg. To create the initial credit rating, observed credits were regionalised on inventory points (Bundeswaldinventur 3) and experimental areas using RandomForest models. Based on this actual state, the possible changes in the credits were calculated using a climate dynamic credit rating model (Yue et al. 2016). The changes in creditworthiness depend on changes in temperature and precipitation in the growing season, the aridity index and nitrogen depositions. Credit changes describe possible long-term location-sensitive changes in the growth potential of a tree species, adjusted for age effects. As possible changes in productivity in forests, they are used as a partial aspect in the assessment of tree species suitability.