Climate — Surface waters Change Flood drainage (HQ100)

Change in the vertex outflow for a 100-year flood event (to be expected by statistical means once in 100 years) in the future. The changes are expressed as percentage increases or decreases resulting from the values for the near future (2021-2050) and the distant future (2071-2100) compared to a reference period (1971-2000). The data base consists of simulated outflows from various hydrological or statistical models on a daily value basis, driven by data from an ensemble of eight regional climate models (from the EURO-CORDEX project) based on a scenario without climate protection (RCP8.5). This scenario describes a future evolution of humanity, in which the energy supply is essentially based on the combustion of fossil fuels and the emission of greenhouse gases leads to a steady increase in radiative forcing until the year 2100. The median represents the mean trend from the bandwidth of the various change signals of the ensemble members, the maximum value represents the upper bandwidth, the minimum value of the lower bandwidth.